POLITICO's newly launched 2020 election forecast includes ratings of every presidential battleground state, Senate race and House contest as we try and predict how everything will turn out on Nov. 3, 2020
The 2020 elections feature an unpredictable and unpopular president, a volatile Democratic primary field bigger than any in history, and a narrow Senate majority that will determine whether the next White House can actually do anything.POLITICO’s 2020 Election Forecast
The 2020 forecast comes after a successful 2018: Of 435 House races, POLITICO only rated 22 as “toss-ups” and missed just three contests in which we thought Republicans were favored but Democrats won election. At the statewide level, we successfully rated each race, with the “toss-ups” equally divided between those won by Democratic and Republican candidates.Trump’s path in 2020 is clear: He can afford to lose 36 electoral votes from the 2016 race and still win a second term.
There’s a huge piece of the puzzle still missing: the identity of the Democratic presidential nominee. Until that is filled in, it’s difficult to exactly gauge both parties’ strengths and how they match up against each other state-by-state. That warrants a cautious approach until the campaigns’ battleground strategies become clearer.Compared to the presidential race, the Senate map is well-defined.
The basic math: Democrats face an uphill battle to hold Sen. Doug Jones’ seat in Alabama, a state where Trump received 62 percent of the vote. We have the Alabama race as “lean Republican,” pending the resolution of a messy GOP primary that includes the seat’s previous occupant, former Attorney General Jeff Sessions, as well as the man Jones defeated in a 2017 special election, defrocked former judge Roy Moore.
And for most of the spring and summer, it worked. Republicans struggled to plug recruiting holes and fell farther behind in the cash dash. But now, the GOP says the ongoing impeachment inquiry has given the party a boost of energy and money from their base, one that could threaten the 31 Democrats who represent districts Trump carried in 2016.
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