THE BANGKO SENTRAL ng Pilipinas (BSP) will likely continue its monetary tightening this year as inflation is seen to remain above target until the second quarter of 2023, analysts said. READ:
ation forecast is still above the 2-4% o“For the BSP to announce its plan to accelerate the disinflation process implies sustained or more aggressive tightening,” Mr. Guinigundo said in a Viber message.
“What is more urgent now is to tame inflation because otherwise, it can also restrain economic growth through lower private consumption and investment. What is bothersome is the possibility of getting inflation expectations more entrenched if disinflation takes more time to execute,” Mr. Guinigundo said.
“If the Fed carries out its pivot, the BSP will be able to do its own pivot with a pause in the second quarter of 2023 and rate cuts in the second half next year,” Mr. Mapa added. “If you’re only looking at one rate increase, it’s not that big. Of course, we increased policy rates from 2% to 5.5%, or by 350 bps, so you multiply these numbers by seven,” Mr. Medalla had said in a mix of English and Tagalog.
“The total effect should happen in 12-18 months. So, since we had in May, you’d expect it in 2023, 2024 for the full effect of the monetary policy,” she said. Maybank Investment Bank Chief Economist Suhaimi Bin Ilias also sees GDP growth easing to 5.5% this year, from a projected 7.3% in 2022. “With the economic data report in hand, Medalla did what few would dare carry out: an emergency meeting as hisThe BSP unexpectedly hiked borrowing costs by 75 bps in July, its biggest rate hike ever, following two 25-bp rate increase each in May and June. This was also the BSP’s first off-cycle move since April 16, 2020, when it cut rates by 50 bps to 2.75% to support the economy.
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