After the early August tariff threat on Chinese goods, the yuan’s fortunes rest on optimism for a trade deal.
Published on August 6th, 2019
In mid-May, U.S. President Donald Trump eased some restrictions on the Chinese technology giant, Huawei, and the United States and China agreed to call a ceasefire to their trade war and resume talks.traded between CNY 6.92 and 6.87 versus the U.S. dollar Then, on August 1, as the U.S. trade negotiating team was traveling back to Washington from Shanghai, the U.S. President abruptly broke the ceasefire byon $200 billion more of Chinese imports into the U.S.—including consumer goods and holiday toys. The Chinese responded on Monday, August 5, 2019, by devaluing the Chinese yuan through the invisible 7-line, taking the currency toward 7.10 to the U.S. dollar.
For Chinese President Xi Jinping, the most important point politically for him is not to be seen as being bullied by the U.S. So, taking a strong stance makes political sense. A devaluation also effectively negates the tariff threat, by making Chinese goods cheaper in U.S. dollar terms.It will be interesting to see how far the Chinese currency depreciation goes. There was an invisible barrier at CNY 7 per U.S.
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