'Democratic strength in special elections has become a consistent trend this year,' writes speechboy71. And 'special elections are one of the single best predictors of future political outcomes.'
. The chances that the attention-starved Manchin will run or have a serious impact on the outcome next November are close to nil, but in a political vacuum, it makes for a great story.
However, if political reporters want to give their audience a sense of what the electorate is thinking, they should point to this week’s special election in Wisconsin’s 24th Assembly District, where Republican Paul Melotik defeated Democrat Bob Tatterson. That might sound like good news for the GOP, but Melotik won by only 7 points in a district that Donald Trump won by 17 points in 2020. Tatterson even outperformed Democratic Gov.
Democratic strength in special elections has become a consistent trend this year. According to the folks at Daily Kos Elections, who have put together aof special election results so far in 2023, Democrats are running 7 points ahead of 2020 presidential results and 11 points better than 2016. In 15 out of 21 special elections held this year, Democrats have outperformed Biden’s 2020 numbers.
, in which the Democratic candidate running on an unambiguously abortion-rights platform trounced her Republican opponent by 11 points in the same state that Biden won by less than a point.
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