Opinion: Don’t count Justin Trudeau out just yet
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at a mining convention in Toronto on Tuesday. By J.J. McCullough J.J. McCullough Email Bio Follow March 7 at 12:35 PM The abrupt resignation this week of Justin Trudeau’s treasury board president, Jane Philpott, has produced no shortage of frenzied speculation that the prime minister is on his last legs. Her resignation letter, however, contains clues as to why his reelection in October remains the outcome worth betting on.
A quick glance at Canada’s 2015 electoral map reminds us that Trudeau was hardly elected on a unanimous wave of support. One in five of his 184 parliamentary seats is located in Quebec, and according to the testimony of Jody Wilson-Raybould, the fired attorney general, Trudeau’s “inappropriate” intervention on behalf of Montreal-based SNC-Lavalin was primarily motivated by a desire to protect jobs in the province he solidly carried.
The remainder of Trudeau’s parliamentary majority is mostly pulled from urban areas in Ontario. It’s here where Philpott’s letter of resignation offers some reason for skepticism about just how much damage Trudeau should expect this scandal to inflict. Climate change, which Trudeau has sought to curtail through a mix of carbon taxes and regulation of the energy sector, remains an issue of enormous significance to urban progressives in Ontario, many of whom are unlikely to have personal or professional ties to Canada’s oil industry and are reassured by city life’s ample abundance of public transportation and green-friendly consumer options. Many regard policies like Trudeau’s as sensibly painless efforts to reduce carbon emissions.
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