It's no coincidence that investors are getting more positive on the stock market as the yield curve has been steepening.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch's quantitative team has new research that shows a direct relation between the move in stock prices and the yield curve, and some sectors, like energy, financials and materials, are far more correlated than others. A steepening yield curve is a positive sign for growth and those sectors are closely linked to cyclical performance of the economy.
The yield curve steepens when interest rates on longer duration bonds are higher than on the shorter duration, and the spread between them is getting wider. That is the opposite of what happened when the curve inverted in the spring and summer. The BofA strategists measure stocks against a number of macro factors, and of all of them, the yield curve has become most correlated.
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