Help-wanted signs are everywhere.
is raising the risk of a recession by next year.
Here’s a closer look at the economy's vital signs, which are sending mixed signals to policymakers, businesses, forecasters — and voters:Perhaps no economic barometer has been as head-scratching as the gross domestic product — the economy’s total output of goods and services. After surging 5.9% last year, the best mark since 1984, GDP fell into a funk in the first half of this year. It shrank at a 1.6% annual rate from January through March and then by 0.6% from April through June.
The entire third-quarter increase in GDP could be attributed to a jump in exports and lower imports, which together added nearly 2.8 percentage points of growth. That performance isn't likely to be repeated. A stronger dollar has made American goods pricier overseas. And Russia's war against Ukraine has contributed to a weakening global economy and lower demand for U.S. goods.
In September, the government’s consumer price index rose a higher-than-expected 0.4% from August and 8.2% from a year earlier. Worse, so-called core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy costs to better assess price pressures, climbed 6.6% from a year earlier. That was the biggest such jump in 40 years.
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