Offshore Hydrogen Would Be 10x Cost Of Already Expensive LNG, Yet Europe Is Serious About It
There’s a bit of a gap between 7x to 14x increases vs a roughly 15% decline. Michael Liebreich thinks I’m too optimistic on a couple of the demand and technology areas, but his projection is only 200 million tons globally — 250 million if he’s feeling generous, per a recent chat with him.
What’s LHV? Lower heating value. What’s that? That’s the energy level that doesn’t remove water vapor from the hydrogen. Why is that important? Because you can’t leave water vapor in the hydrogen. What should they be using? HHV or higher heating value. It shows the more accurate and even lower efficiency of turning electricity and water into hydrogen.
For context, the total wind, water, and solar renewable capacity of the Earth in 2019 was just sufficient to manufacture the current hydrogen demand. This remarkable document is based on multiplying that by a factor of seven at minimum just to deliver hydrogen with no leftover electricity, and just for Europe. There’s no world in which this makes the slightest of sense unless you are deep into a bubble of groupthink. Yet European policy in multiple countries is currently based on this.
As a note on where the authors’ heads are at, the report uses “pipeline” 330 times, “HVDC” 21 times, and “HVAC” 23 times. But I promised expensive. Note that none of their numbers for manufacturing and transmitting hydrogen are below €3.00 per kilogram of hydrogen. The lowest number they cite is equivalent to US$3.50 per kilogram. The current cost of manufacturing unabated hydrogen from natural gas is about US$0.78 per kilogram, and that’s also the absolute best and deeply unrealistic case of Lazard’s levelized cost of hydrogen, so this is 4.
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