October inflation could show moderation in goods prices but not services or rent
Economists expect the October consumer price index rose 0.6% from September, or 7.9% from a year ago, upaccording to Dow Jones. Excluding food and energy, core CPI is expected to have risen by 0.5%, or 6.5% on an annual basis. That is lower than the 0.6% gain in September, which was a 6.6% annual pace.
"We're going from red hot to rolling boil, and that's not cool enough for the Fed," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. Swonk said the Fed should feel comfortable enough with the report to raise rates by a half point, as it indicated it would do. The Fed had been hiking in 75 basis point increments. A basis point equals 0.01 of a percentage point.
Simons expects core CPI rose 0.4% and that, within that, goods prices declined 0.2% while services rose 0.6% . Services includes items such as medical care, rents, airfares, recreation, education and car insurance. "It won't be in this month but by early 2023, we could see more moderation in shelter costs," she said. Shelter costs are 40% of core CPI.
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