It would probably surprise most people that the Dow Jones Industrials had more record highs under Obama than Trump. While Obama did serve eight years vs. Trump’s current three, Obama had to contend with the Great Recession vs. Trump entering office with a market at all-time highs.
, about a year before Obama became President and two months after the Dow 30 Industrials hit an all-time high of 14,165. The Dow then fell over 50% to 6,547 in March 2009, which was three months before the recession officially ended in June.It took from January 2009 until March 2013 for the Dow Industrials to regain its previous high. It then started a string of 50 new highs in 2013 and 38 in 2014.
The numbers do tilt in Trump’s favor when you end Obama’s run on November 8, 2016, when Trump was elected. The Dow reached 18 new highs between his election and inauguration, which would change the totals to 100 vs. 135. I would not be surprised to see the markets record additional new highs as long as the Fed pumps money into the economy.To get a feeling for how profits impact the stock markets, I am using the S&P 500 earnings fromand updated frequently for this analysis.
After the stock markets recovered from the downturn created by the Great Recession, from 2009 to 2012 earnings moved consistently higher until 2014. This led to 50 and 38 record highs in 2013 and 2014, respectively. As earnings flattened out from in 2015 and 2016 there were still new highs but the number of them declined. In 2017 the prospect of a large corporate tax cut provided a large amount of momentum to the markets, even though earnings did not move meaningfully higher until 2018.
Once the tax cuts benefits were baked into earnings forecasts, the number of new highs diminished in 2018 and 2019, coming in at 19 and 22, respectively.I provide independent research of technology companies and was previously one of two analysts that determined the technology holdings for Atlantic Trust (Invesco's high
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