Right now, it’s a tight rematch between two unpopular candidates.
Essentially, Biden’s low job-approval numbers are almost perfectly balanced by majority sentiment that Trump has committed “serious federal crimes.” Short of an unlikely comprehensive exoneration of the former president, that sentiment would seem to put a cap on his support, whereas it’s entirely possible — particularly if the economy continues to improve — that Biden’s job-approval numbers will get better. Still, as Nate CohnMr.
wanted a different nominee. Now, Democrats have broadly accepted him as their standard-bearer, even if half would prefer someone else. But excitement for Biden remains low; the new poll shows only 20 percent of Democratic primary voters are “enthusiastic” about voting for him in 2024. Tellingly, a higher percentage, 26 percent, would be “enthusiastic” if Kamala Harris were the nominee.
There are more wild cards than you can count in anticipating a Biden-Trump rematch. Will overall turnout match that of 2020, when states
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