Traders scale back the odds of a final interest-rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year after US job openings dipped to levels unseen sinc
Following Powell’s speech, the odds for a November Fed rate hike spiked up to roughly 57%. This probability has fallen to 40%, in the face of the disappointing US jobs data, according to data from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.Attention turns toward Friday’s critical United States jobs data for August. The key employment statistics will confirm whether labor market conditions are loosening up amid concerns over a likely ‘hard landing’.
The focus will also be on Average Hourly Earnings, a measure of wage inflation, which could have a strong influence on the Fed’s interest rate path. The Average Hourly Earnings are seen rising 4.4% on a yearly basis in August, at the same pace seen in July. The monthly Average Hourly Earnings is set to increase 0.3% in August compared with a 0.4% growth in July.
Analysts at TD Securities noted, “payrolls likely posted another sub-200k gain in August, remaining in the vicinity of the Jun-Jul gains. The August increase would maintain the downtrend in the three-month pace, barring any major revisions. We also look for the UE rate to stay unchanged at 3.5%, following its second consecutive decline in July. We also expect wage growth to print 0.3% m/m .
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