Biden doesn’t actually need to win Iowa or New Hampshire to accrue the 1,990 pledged delegates required to clinch the nomination. He simply needs to hold onto black voters in Southern states and urban areas.
Welcome to 2020 Vision, the Yahoo News column covering the presidential race with one key takeaway every weekday and a wrap-up each weekend. Reminder: There are 63 days until the Iowa caucuses and 337 days until the 2020 election.
Today Biden leads his closest national rival, Bernie Sanders, by more than 10 percentage points on average. Buoyed by the overwhelming support of black Democrats, he’s still polling at 27 percent. Story continuesBiden’s rivals will point out that the primaries take place in numerous states over several months, and that despite his impressive numbers in national polls he is in fourth place in the early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire, behind Buttigieg, Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Biden’s support is a mirage, they argue. It’s all about name recognition and perceived electability. It vanishes wherever people are paying close attention.
At the moment, Biden is on track to perform very well after Iowa and New Hampshire. In Nevada, he leads by nearly 10 points on average. In South Carolina, the last state to vote before Super Tuesday, he is currently averaging 35.3 percent in the polls — more than double his closest competitor. Among black voters there, Biden is ahead by 34 points. The latest surveys in California, Texas, North Carolina and Virginia also show him in the lead.
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