Seth Walder gives his intel on some last-minute bets to place on Sunday's NFL Week 5 games.
Tyler Fulghum explains why all signs are pointing to the Jaguars and Bills scoring less than the projected point total. If I'm placing bets on a Sunday, I'm not looking at full-game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty anyway: It's what I build statistical models around to try and find an edge.
Even though Jones' very high 3.5% interception rate this season will certainly come down , the reality is that the Giants probably will fall behind the potent Dolphins offense and will need Jones to put the ball in the air. That's when a pick is likely to come. I make the fair price -133. The model makes the fair price +687, but I think there's two pieces of information outside its purview that works in this bet's favor. First:has had three dropped interceptions this season, the second-most in the NFL this season. That's on top of his four actual interceptions. Second: the Ravens are tied with the Jets for the best defensive Open Score so far this season. I think this Baltimore defense has a great chance to make life really rough on Pickett.
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