It'll come down to a handful of swing states, per its forecast.
It predicts the race will, once again, come down to a handful of swing states and that polls show Trump leading in them. But because of “the fundamentals,” Biden “has a 53-in-100 chance of winning the election” and “Trump still has a 47-in-100 chance.”
The forecast gives Biden a 57% chance of winning in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, a 59% chance of winning Michigan and a 72% chance of taking Minnesota.538 forecast begins with 53% Biden, 47% Trump chances of victory as economic & political fundamentals move a slight Trump current polling lead to a slight Biden forecast:“At this point in the race, our margin of error for these state forecasts is huge. There are two reasons for this: First, it is early.
“In part, this oft-repeated caveat is a convenient way for pollsters to avoid catching flak for inaccurate numbers closer to the election. But there is an important truth to it: If a voter has not yet cast their ballot, there is the possibility they may change their mind. We also don’t know exactly who is going to turn out in this election yet. All this means polls earlier in the election cycle are worse at approximating the final margin.
@Exmeter Donald-Trump Joe-Biden
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