In an uncertain world, knowing what to believe can be challenging. Debates about the "hot hand" in basketball show the trade-off between trusting your gut and being open-minded.
Decisions require balancing many sources of evidence, including personal experience and scientific findings.Still, people might believe you more if you present your ideas with confidence, even when you're wrong., the philosopher Quassim Cassam argued that people believe false things—such as harmful and extremist conspiracy theories—because of their intellectual character flaws. He listed a bunch: Gullibility, closed-mindedness, negligence.... These, he said, are what cause faulty beliefs.
One responded:"Who is this guy? So he makes a study. I couldn’t care less." This seems like a perfect illustration of intellectual vices in operation. The dismissive reaction manifested a range of vices, including closed-mindedness andhe was closed-minded or prejudiced... A less closed-minded coach might well have reacted completely differently to evidence that the hot hand doesn’t exist.
Personally, I try to match my tone to my evidence. If I don’t know something from personal experience or extremely thorough evidence, I’ll say “seems to be...” or “my understanding is...” or “right now I’m thinking...” These kinds of phrases give a nod to how much my positions may change, or how much I don’t understand or know. Usually, it’s a lot.
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