Let’s dive into New York’s playoff odds and break down if there’s any value.
I’m not sure Vegas nor the projection systems are accounting for how challenging the next part of the schedule is for the Mets. I believe every number considers the strength of schedule, but New York’s next few weeks are brutally challenging.
By opposing winning percentage, the Mets have the third-toughest remaining strength of schedule in MLB and the toughest among NL East teams. They still have seven games left against the Diamondbacks, eight against the Braves, and four against the Yankees. After the Mets wrap up this series against the Braves, their upcoming schedule includes the following sets:Three games at the Astros Three games at the Padres That brutalizing stretch of baseball takes the Mets through July 16. Even the supposedly “easy” sets come against deceptively talented teams like the Cardinals and the Padres.
The Mets could come out of that stretch of schedule in an even-worse spot than they are now, and the odds for them to miss the playoffs would move significantly. The back end of the rotation is already weak between Carlos Carrasco and Tylor Megill , and Kodai Senga has seen some regression following a hot start.
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