US growth and inflation data provide the pick of the bunch this week. CPI in Germany will influence ECB rate cut expectations and will a quiet week in the UK benefit GBP?
Sterling has performed well over the last week and with little to no ‘high impact’ data on the horizon, the currency may remain propped up on the whole. The’s recent attempts to advance against a number of G7 currencies appear to be waning as price action hints towards fatigue at the end of this last week.
The weekly gold candle shows a restrictive range of just $25 as the precious metal looks for a driver to help break its current lethargy.Major Risk Events in the Week Aheadeven further should price pressures follow the recent trend lower – raising doubts around one of the Bank of Japan’s two conditions for policy normalisation. Potentially bullish forbut this is fraught with complexity as the Japanese finance ministry could deploy the use of FX intervention at any time.
US data is likely to be seen as the major focus of the week. A second look at US Q4 GDP has the potential to provide intra-day volatility but a major reaction is unlikely in the absence of a massive deviation from the first estimate. Then on Friday, US PCE data provides another crucial piece of the inflation puzzle and could influence rate cut bets and, by extension, the US dollar.
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