Marketmind: It took two weeks for UK money markets to go from expecting no interest rate rises this year to betting on a cumulative 35 basis-point moves in November and December. Here's a look at the day ahead from reutersSujataR
It took two weeks for UK money markets to go from expecting no interest rate rises this year to betting on a cumulative 35 basis-point moves in November and December. But such bets are proliferating almost everywhere, rate-sensitive short-dated bond yields are rising and bond curves are flattening -- the U.S. 2-10 curve for instance has flattened 12 bps in a week.
So, is it justified? Growth is clearly wobbling, especially in China where Q3 GDP slowed to 4.9% while Monday data showed U.S. industrial production shrank 1.3% month-on-month in September. Perhaps that's why bonds have not built on the recent moves, with yields lower today and the dollar slipping to three-week lows. That's cheered markets, especially on top of robust earnings so far in the Q3 season and equity futures are implying firmer New York and European sessions, following gains across Asia.
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