“It’s really a make-or-break moment,” says Stephen Bi from the Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Potsdam University, lead author of the study to be published today (February 6, 2023) in the journal Nature Climate Change. “Our computer simulation of climate economics and policy
Scientists say that carbon pricing and coal mining phase-out would be effective policies.and Potsdam University, lead author of the study to be published today in the journal. “Our computer simulation of climate economics and policy making indicates that current policies lead the world to less than a 5 percent likelihood of phasing out coal by mid-century. This would leave minimal chances of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 and limiting disastrous climate risks.
Interestingly, the scientists’ computer simulation shows that the most concerning leakage effect, in this case, may actually arise within the Alliance itself rather than through international coal markets. Although the Powering Past Coal Alliance is expected to grow, its pledge is limited to the electricity sector. This means that countries who join can actually increase their coal use in steel, cement, and chemicals production, greatly hindering the potential of this initiative.
The scientists conclude that additional strong policies are needed to avoid this effect. “The coal exit debate has to look beyond the power sector and also include the heavy industry. Carbon pricing would be the most efficient instrument to close loopholes in domestic regulations, while restrictions on coal mining and exports would go the furthest to deter free-riding abroad,” continues Bauer.“China plays a special role since it produces and consumes more than half of all coal globally.
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