The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note just broke below the 2-year rate. steveliesman explains the odd bond market phenomenon, detailing how it has been a reliable, albeit early, indicator for economic recessions.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note on Wednesday broke below the 2-year rate, an odd bond market phenomenon that has been a reliable, albeit early, indicator for economic recessions. The yield on U.S. 30-year bond fell to a new all-time low, dropping past its prior record notched in summer 2016.Early Wednesday, the yield on the benchmark
Investors are now demanding higher interest rates on short-term debt than they are longer term debt, a phenomena known as an "inverted yield curve." Economists often give thespecial attention because inversions of that part of the curve have preceded every recession over the past 50 years. It's not until about 18 months after an inversion when the stock market usually turns and posts negative returns.
"This is a track record any economist would be proud of," said Sohn. "If the inversion started today, the economy could be in a recession within a year."
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