Every Asian trading desk was in sell mode on Tuesday after Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the December 15 tariff schedule is still active unless the phase 1 trade deal gets signed within the next 2 weeks
Share to linkedin... [+]The market has no real idea as to whether or not President Trump will hike tariffs on more than $150 billion worth of goods, including consumer goods, on December 15. But it’s best to hedge as if he will.
Brian McCarthy, head of strategy for Macrolens, a boutique investment research firm with a keen focus on China, thinks markets are in a “fool me twice” scenario. But a postponement of the phase one deal, as Trump alluded to this week, will likely require a sign of renewed good faith between Beijing and Washington. How that happens following the latest attacks on China for human rights, and this week’s NATO meeting acknowledging China as a military threat, remains a mystery. It would be capitulation from Xi Jinping to sign a deal now. He can buy time in hopes Trump is replaced by friendlier forces next year.
Assuming tariffs go up in December, China may retaliate by creating its own blacklist of U.S. companies or banning official China business with lawmakers who backed the recent human rights bills.
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