School outbreaks appear to be low, but it's hard to know given the difficulty of contact tracing.
Campuses in the Los Angeles school district have improved attendance and lower coronavirus rates in their second week since returning from winter break. But infections remain near record levels and the data are difficult to interpret because health officials have suspended contact-tracing requirements.
Put another way, in testing during the week that ended Dec. 17, about 2 students in 1,000 tested positive. In early January baseline testing just before school restarted, about 170 students per 1,000 tested positive. And, during the first week of school, about 110 students per 1,000 tested positive.School officials interpreted the data as evidence that schools are safe and that students should be in school.
Attendance rates this week have improved significantly from last week, although they are still well below normal. About 33% of students were not in class the first week. On Tuesday that figure was 28%. On Wednesday, it was 24%. Many students who tested positive in the week before school could be back in class — as could some students who were being held at home last week by worried parents.
This magnitude of outbreaks is about the same as in the fall, possibly suggesting that schools are effectively containing the spread of the virus on campus. It’s hard to be certain, however, because the high number of cases has made contact tracing difficult — and both state and county health officials have told schools they can abandon the effort during the current surge. That means a school-based outbreak might not be identified at all.
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