One bank implosion and a cooperative jobs report later, and the market has changed its mind.
The probability of a 0.25 percentage point increase rose above 70% at one point in morning trading,"In all, the data do not argue for a 50 [basis point] rate hike by the Fed on March 22 despite the strong payroll advance," said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide.in February, well ahead of the Wall Street estimate for 225,000 but still a step down from January's 504,000.
"The Fed can take comfort in the rise in the supply of labor and the easing of upward pressure on wages to maintain a 25 [basis point] rate increase," Bostjancic added. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. "The February report was overall on the softer side," Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America, said in a client note. "While payrolls topped our expectations, the rise in the unemployment rate and relatively weak average hourly earnings data point to a little better balance between labor supply and demand."
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