Over the last few days, the world watched as tension between several of Putin’s most loyal lieutenants broke into the open. Russia experts tell us what we learned about Putin from the attempted mutiny, and what it might mean for Russia and the West👇
“Putin overestimated his own ability to control the monster that he had created.”“He seemed genuinely frightened.”The last few days have been alternately strange, confusing and nerve-wracking. The world watched as tension between several of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s most loyal lieutenants broke into the open, and one of them turned his guns on targets in his own country.
Daniel Fried is former assistant secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia, former NSC senior director for Europe and Eurasia, former ambassador to Poland, and now a Weiser Family distinguished fellow with the Atlantic Council.e have learned in the past 48 hours that Putin’s hold on power is vulnerable and that the Russian state is decrepit. That doesn’t mean Putin will fall tomorrow. But, faced with a military mutiny, Putin had to negotiate.
. In fact, his support among the military might increase — both from Shoigu and top brass, but perhaps more importantly from generals and officers at the frontline. I even suspect that what happened on June 24 may have helped somewhat defuse tensions that had been growing within the Russian body politic.
What this bizarre episode signals is a new way of doing business in Russia. Vladimir Putin has drained Russia of public politics. Everything is the regime and everything — supposedly — is in harmony with the regime. The people are quiescent. But this is merely the surface of Russian politics.
Once the dust settles, however — and it likely will, given that others with arms did not join Prighozin’s rallying call — Putin will probably emerge even stronger in terms of immediate internal threats to his rule. When dictators survive public challenges like this, they often ratchet up repression in the period after and engage in all-out campaigns to signal their strength. But where the Prigozhin incident could be most consequential is with developments in Ukraine.
But one thing is clear: There are major cracks in Putin’s power. How Ukraine will exploit them politically and militarily remains unclear at the moment.
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