“No matter who wins, this election will be decided by a few thousand votes,” Vogue political correspondent Jack Schlossberg writes. “That’s why young people—and whether or not they vote—are the most important variable.”
The presidential race is neck and neck, a toss-up, a dead heat. But don’t take my word for it, or anyone else’s. No matter what you hear, no one actually knows what will happen. Polls aren’t always accurate, but they’re all we’ve got. So here’s what we know: Nationally, the race is tied, give or take a few points within the margin of error.
In 2020, youth turnout was 50%—a huge step up from years past, and a possible indication of another high turnout in 2024. No matter who wins, this election will be decided by a few thousand votes. That’s why young people—and whether or not they vote—are the most important variable. Current polls show young people are extremely enthusiastic about Kamala Harris overall, but there’s a substantial and deepening gender gap between men and women under the age of 29.
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