Most economists believe inflation likely quickened for the second straight month in September after cooling for six straight months from a peak of 8.7 percent in January.
Michael Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said inflation likely accelerated to 5.7 percent in September from 5.3 percent in August.
From January to August, inflation averaged 6.6 percent and exceeded the two to four percent target range of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas . Chung pointed out that global oil prices are expected to stay elevated through the rest of the year on the back of tight supply. “Notably, headline inflation in India, the Philippines and South Korea has rebounded from recent lows. We expect the September CPI data due next week to show that inflation remains elevated, especially in the Philippines,” Chung said.
On a positive note, Velasquez said rice and vegetable prices, which were the primary drivers of food inflation in August, eased due to the mandated rice price cap and relatively favorable weather. “Moreover, recent shocks to inflation were on the supply side which could be addressed by non-monetary measures. However, we are cognizant that another rate hike in November is a live possibility if the peso weakens further given another Fed rate hike,” Velasquez said.
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