A paper attributes a whopping 45 percentage points of the total 50% decline in crime in America since 1990 to legal abortion
Nearly two decades later, Messrs Donahue and Levitt have returned to the subject, and present new evidence that bolsters their original claim. In a new working paper circulated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, they attribute a whopping 45 percentage points of the total 50% decline in crime since 1990 to legal abortion. Their primary evidence is that crime fell much faster in states where more abortions were performed than it did in those where the procedure was rarer.
The authors argue that this statistical association reflects an underlying causal relationship. Armed with a cache of annual state-level data on abortions, crime rates and other factors—including economic conditions, welfare payments, access to firearms and alcohol consumption—they seek to isolate the impact of abortion on violent crime, after controlling for other variables that also affect crime rates.
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