An analysis of all tropical storms in the Atlantic between 1971 and 2020 has confirmed that hurricanes are intensifying more rapidly, giving people less time to prepare
A satellite photo from September 2017 showing Hurricane Maria in the Caribbean and Hurricane Jose approaching the US east coast“If we don’t take urgent action to limit future warming, then that’s a trend that we would expect to continue to see worsen in the future,” saysat Rowan University in New Jersey. This means people will have less and less time to prepare for storms and to evacuate if necessary.
So far, studies looking at whether there is indeed a trend to faster intensification have looked at specific parts of the Atlantic or used narrow definitions of rapid intensification.since 1971. For each storm, the team calculated the rate of intensification over periods of 12 hours, 24 hours or 36 hours, and then compared the fastest rates of intensification for each storm for each of the three periods. “It’s taking a broader look,” says Garner.
The results show beyond doubt that storms are on average intensifying faster. For instance, between 2001 and 2020, hurricanes were more than twice as likely to intensify from a category 1 hurricane into a category 3 or greater within 24 hours than they were between 1971 and 1990. It is statistically impossible for this to be a result of chance, says Garner.
“I think it is important that we think about how we can continue to improve our warning systems and work towards making communities more resilient to storm impacts,” says Garner.
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