Huge testing discrepancies between states muddles the meaning of results. In the information age, we still need a lot more information
Epidemiologists and other leading scientists seeking to decipher test result patterns and slow the advance of theare stumbling over the huge disparities among the ways states administer or report information.
, a collaborative group that tracks testing numbers released by each state’s department of health. The figures run through March 22.Ohio’s ratio seems high because its website stopped reporting negative tests after March 15. So doctors can’t tell whether New York is the epicenter of the disease or whether places like Ohio are harboring similar numbers of carriers of the virus and simply haven’t done enough testing or haven’t disclosed enough to uncover them.
By including statistics on negative test results, researchers and health officials can tell whether the increasing numbers are a result of an epidemic or indicative of testing expansion. Don Williamson, the president of the Alabama Hospital Association and previously the state’s health commissioner for more than two decades, said regions where only limited testing has happened so far are exactly where capacity should be ramped up, perhaps even more than in places where the outbreak already is widespread.
In Alabama’s case, he said, that has meant a “consistent and perpetual” shortage of swabs and the materials needed to transport viral specimens safely. “But it would be very helpful to be able to show that progress,” he said. “Right now, the longer we go without testing large numbers of people, the less data we have to guide that social distancing. … You need to know your starting point.”
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