The world would likely know if a nuclear attack were imminent.
has particularly shown, given the country's extreme isolation. And while GCHQ's Fleming and other researchers caution that there is never perfect information, global knowledge of Russia's nuclear program and long-standing intelligence operations inside the country will likely allow international observers to spot any Russian nuclear preparations.
“What we’ve mostly seen from North Korea is technology tests where they're showing off a lot in the public space to send specific signals internationally and domestically,” Cato's Gomez says. “With the Russians, it's a different situation.
Podvig also notes that another version of Russia's nuclear weapons staging could involve transporting the weapons to forests and then readying the strike under tree cover to minimize aerial visibility. Such an approach would still be detectable during the transport phase and could offer a sort of hybrid in which the exact nature of Russia's plan remains unknown, but the activity still sends an escalatory signal to Ukraine and the world.
“I don’t see why Russia would want to hide the deployment,” Podvig says. “But even if it wanted to, I think they will not have the certainty that they could be successful. I would assume that US intelligence and everybody is watching those sites. The Americans cannot have absolute certainty that they will see it, but Russia does not have certainty that they will not.”
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