Not since the Cold War has the specter of nuclear war hung so heavily over a president’s crisis diplomacy
Russian leader Vladimir Putin attends a cabinet meeting via videoconference at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow on Wednesday. | Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP.
Yet as the conflict drags on, and Russia’s conventional forces suffer surprisingly heavy losses while its economy reels, the prospect that Putin might resort to using weapons of mass destruction is increasing. Moscow has already demonstrated thatWith limited contact between the Kremlin and Western capitals, the risk that Moscow’s intentions could be misread with catastrophic consequences will only grow more acute, according to numerous specialists.
But the treaty does not cover any of the thousands of smaller, or “battlefield,” nuclear weapons in their respective arsenals, including at least 2,000 in Russian stockpiles,Two Defense Department officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, say they are vigilantly gathering intelligence on Russian military moves for any sign that it might be taking such weapons out of storage or preparing for deployment units trained in nuclear or chemical warfare.
The dearth of diplomacy and growing distrust only fuels the risk of “mushroom clouds appearing on the battlefield,” Izumi Nakamitsu, United Nations high representative for disarmament affairs, warned on Tuesday. That, he continued, “is right in the wheelhouse of Russian [military] doctrine for a low-yield nuclear or even chemical [weapons] use.”
Nunn has been sounding the alarm about the threat of an accidental nuclear exchange as a result of a cyber attack on nuclear command-and-control systems — including by malign actors not directly involved in the conflict who could be confused for a nuclear adversary. “One of the problems with Russian nuclear forces is how many of their systems are dual-capable,” Morrison said. “So you’re not going to necessarily know if the S-300 or that long-range [missile or artillery] battery is packing a conventional warhead or a nuclear one.”
“Prospects of renewed arms control are very low,” said Nikolai Sokov, a senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation who worked on arms control agreements in the Soviet and Russian foreign ministries. “Advocates for nuclear weapons have long argued that they keep the peace, acting as a stabilizing force,” said Stephen Young, the senior Washington representative for the Union of Concerned Scientists. “Putin is turning that belief on its head, using the threat of nuclear war to deter others from intervening against his forces in Ukraine”He lauded Biden’s efforts at nuclear deescalation in the face of Putin’s threats. “But it isn’t enough,” Young said.
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