(Editor's Note: I know this fanpost is a week old but I'm giving it front page time) TLDR: A lot. Like, a lot a lot. Scroll to the bottom if you just want the answer. If you have slogged through...
TLDR: A lot. Like, a lot a lot. Scroll to the bottom if you just want the answer.My driving question was this: can we look beyond wins and losses and determine if teamstheir wins? If the opponent was replaced with the most averageiest average NFL team possible, would they still win? Can I co-opt the visceral immediacy of the binary win/loss and its hold on the mind of the average football fan?I use Expected Points Added data to drive my metrics .
Note that the combination is not the average of the two, it is the addition. So being bad on offense and defense stacks just like being good on offense and defense. That's all well and good but we can do much better. Now we get to something interesting: EW carries. When a team earns a win, to which unit do they owe the victory? On a scale from zero to one, I calculate by how much the offense carries the team in a win and similar for the defense. If both units do well, they share the carry and sum to one. If either unit does below average, the other unit takes the full carry for the week.
The SEA graphs are kind of a mess because their offense and defense keep swapping full responsibility for earned wins and losses. They rarely share. Now, if you are like me right after I got this data, you might wonder just WTF it means. How does it compare to the rest of the league? I agreed with you earlier on the timeline and generated these graphs:took blame for an earned loss and took full accolades for almost every win.
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