How Far Off Were My Projections For Small Rideable Electric Vehicles?

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How Far Off Were My Projections For Small Rideable Electric Vehicles?
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Electric rideables are absurdly efficient at moving people and small loads through urban areas without causing congestion, without noise, without pollution and without greenhouse gas emissions.

Seven long years ago — think back before Trump’s presidency, COVID-19, Russia’s criminal invasion of Ukraine, the energy crisis, ChatGPT, Pokemon Go, TikTok, #MeToo, Brexit, #BlackLivesMatter, the Beirut port explosion, the Chinese space station, the death of the last English queen, and many more events — I was interested in electric skateboards and the entire class of.

Brief aside: At the time I thought that weighted comparison matrices were better than straightforward ones like this one. I was vaguely guilty that I didn’t weight the factors. However, Daniel Kahneman’s, co-authored with Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein, makes it very clear that all weighting of factors in assessments like this does is to introduce statistical noise that means signal is lost.

If I were to redo the matrix today, I’d at minimum merge luggability and weight, maybe getting rid of the factor entirely, and add a Shareability factor. E-scooters are great for share systems, but e-skateboards aren’t at all. Why not? Well, in addition to the small number of people who could ride them, the skateboard requires a wireless hand controller, which is tiny, lightweight and would disappear as my personal one has.

I’ve now owned an electric skateboard and ridden electric share scooters in at least four cities through Uber and other share services. It can’t be overstated how deeply easy it is to ride electric scooters compared to almost everything else, including electric skateboards. The much bigger, inflated wheels on e-scooters are much more comfortable across far more surfaces. Traction in the wet is better and there is no worry about road spray because they have fenders.

What else? Well, Inboard and Boosted are both interesting case studies in this space. Both were providing electric skateboards at the time, with Boosted being the leader with its external motor and belt drive to the wheel system providing amazing torque. I thought that in-wheel motors would dominate the space, with the Inboard M1 being the clear successor to Boosted.

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