OPINION: An Elizabeth Warren presidency wouldn't necessarily crash the stock market. Your argument says more about your politics than about what the market itself says is likely to happen.
It’s impossible to know, but it is possible to take an objective look at the question. That’s because of the insight gained from analyzing trading data from online gambling sites, such as PredictIt.org, which allow investors to bet on various outcomes.
I then also fed into my software daily prices for Facebook FB, +0.49% stock as well as the Select Sector SPDRs benchmarked to the financial, health care, energy, and industrials sectors. I also included the price history for the S&P 500 SPX, +0.75% . I then searched for correlations between the Warren contract and any of these other price histories.
Read: This is what the net worth of the world’s elite would look like if Elizabeth Warren’s tax plan had been in effect since 1982 Maybe my PC’s statistical software is missing something. For insight, I turned to Zitzewitz, who explained that we simply don’t yet have enough data to measure the potential impact of a Warren presidency — despite the dire predictions from some captains of industry. A related difficulty with drawing any conclusions, he said, is that “we haven’t had an event that has moved Warren’s probability without also affecting lots of other things.
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