The New York congresswoman is a better fit for the role of MAGA second banana than anyone else on Donald Trump’s “short list”.
Trump loves people to speculate about his running mate for a lot of reasons. You only have to look at how much he loves endorsing candidates for every office in the country, while inaccurately bragging about his supposedly successful scorecard in the actual elections. He revels in the idea that he is the sole Republican kingmaker, so everyone believes they must go through him to get elected.
Donald Trump and Elise Stefanik attend a rally ahead of the New Hampshire primary in Concord, New Hampshire, on Jan. 19, 2024.Next, look at the campaign's strategy. When you compare the numbers by demographic between the 2016 election and 2020 election, one group jumps out as the reason Trump lost—white, suburban voters.51-47 in 2020, compared with 54-38 in 2016.
DeSantis’ criticisms of Trump down the stretch were tough and personal, even questioning his cognitive abilities and vigor. DeSantis has repeatedly said he is not interested in being anyone’s VP, and people who know him best agree that he is temperamentally ill-suited to be a #2. There are some polls indicating another black Republican, Rep. Byron Donalds, could help Trump make inroads with the Black, male voting demographic. But it’s probably not enough upside to justify taking a hard-right choice from Florida that will hurt him in other areas.
Trump wants a candidate who can speak to suburban moms, and Noem has been campaigning in various places around the country and on cable news as a Trump surrogate. Trump’s New York roots—as well as Republican Lee Zeldin’s surprisingly close defeat in the state’s 2022 gubernatorial race—actually have him. He continues to talk about doing a rally in Madison Square Garden. If he adds Stefanik to the ticket, at the very least the campaign believes it will force Biden to spend money in a state where TV spots are not cheap.
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