A technical indicator suggests a bottom is in but fundamental forecasts sow concern
The stock market has all but stalled this week. The S&P 500’s 200-day moving average has seemingly morphed from magnet to resistor. It’s the summer: NYSE composite volume was the lowest of the year on Thursday, according to Dow Jones data.
The rally, we are told, has been powered by hopes that peak U.S. inflation can help the Federal Reserve be more gentle in its monetary spanking. It has also been propelled by a generally well-received second quarter company earnings season. Oh, and falling oil prices too. Unfortunately, there may be trouble ahead. Emanuel reckons waning global economic growth means next 12-month earnings per share estimates have peaked. They forecast an S&P 500 EPS of $232, compared to current consensus of $244.
“This was only exceeded three times in the past 30 years. Each of the three prior instances was the market bottom. We think this is the fourth instance.” he writes.
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