King Dollar’s reign coming to an end, bonds bouncing and emerging markets rising again are just some of the trades international money managers are betting on in 2023. | Reuters
The Fed remains hawkish, but markets are testing its resolve. Joe Little, global chief strategist at HSBC Asset Management, is tipping the dollar index to drop more than 10 percent in 2023 “based on inflation peaking and a Fed policy shift”.
With COVID deaths rising again uncertainty remains, but the enthusiasm is undoubtedly there for a reopening that also eventually lifts Asian capital markets and deal-making. Performance following past routs underscores this wave of optimism. MSCI’s EM equity index soared 64 percent in 1999, following the Asian financial crisis, and 75 percent in 2009. EM hard currency debt saw a whopping 30 percent rebound too after its 12 percent global financial crisis drop.Inflation – the bond market’s nemesis because it forces up rates and erodes returns – looks likely to moderate this year as recessions start to bite.
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