Data over the past 3 years have shown a steady shift in how trade is being conducted.
Automated vehicles move shipping containers in a container port in Qingdao in eastern China's Shandong Province, Thursday, Jan. 12, 2021. A lot of people are declaring the death of globalization – some say because of the COVID-19 pandemic, a conflict in Europe or other catalysts. It’s not that simple.
Costs and time are major factors in this but so is ensuring easy and broad access to key goods. During the pandemic we saw goods like medicines, some foodstuffs and other major goods become hard to get. Regionalizing supply chains creates the opportunity for goods to arrive faster, arguably cheaper and increases the number of exporters.Russian trade in Europe is finished and will be for years to come. Central Asia, which used to be essentially Moscow’s, is now looking towards Beijing.
Re-globalization sets the world somewhat back on the path that existed pre-pandemic but with a twist. The notion of the ‘one large power’ is over. The idea is that globalization could. Regional hubs will create a world led by two nearly equal powers, surrounded by trade satellites – one we expect to be a U.S.-led side that includes USMCA, Latin America, and Europe. The other, a Chinese-led side that will include Asia-Pacific, Central Asia, and parts of Africa.
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