Global recession will come in 9 months if Trump takes this one step, Morgan Stanley argues:
A recession will come in nine months’ time if President Donald Trump goes one step further in his plan to impose tariffs on Chinese-made consumer products, a leading brokerage argues.
That’s bad enough, but tolerable, says Morgan Stanley, which makes the case that if those 10% tariffs are kept for longer than four or five months, global growth will remain weak in the range of 2.8% to 3%, despite interest-rate cuts from central banks. The risks, they argue, are skewed to downside. The global economy would enter recession in three quarters if Trump took the tariffs up to 25% and China were to respond.“We see substantial risk that the 10% tariff could get increased to 25%. At that point we would have 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports.
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