Many analysts think Germany is headed for outright recession
THE MOOD music had grown so ominous that the shock was somewhat muted. After weeks of dismal survey and industrial-output numbers, it was little surprise to learn on August 14th that Germany’s GDP had contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter of 2019 compared to the previous three months. The economy has been essentially flat over the past year.
A second discussion is raging over the German government’s steadfast aversion to borrowing. The “debt brake”, enshrined in the constitution since 2009, rules out borrowing to finance the structural deficit beyond 0.35% of GDP. A related political commitment, the, pledges a balanced budget for current spending. This has ensured low debt and, since 2014, a surplus that last year stood at 1.7% of GDP, or €58bn .
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