GDP likely grew at a meager 0.3% annual pace in the three months running from April to June, a Wall Street Journal poll of economists estimates.
The economy may have shrunk for the second quarter in a row based on the government’s official scorecard, but it doesn’t mean the U.S. has already sunk into a second recession in three years.
Yet some firms such as IHS Markit — one of Wall Street’s premier forecasters — predict a 1.3% decline. The U.S. is not exhibiting the usual clear signals of a faltering economy, for example, such as a surge in layoffs, rapidly rising unemployment and declining wages and income.“Real GDP is likely to have contracted [in the first quarter and second quarter], but job growth remains robust,” noted chief economist Greg Daco of EY-Parthenon.
While GDP represents the spending side of the economy, GDI reflects how much income is generated. More often than not, economists say, GDI gives a more accurate portrayal of the economy than GDP when the two figures show a wide divergence. That’s not a big number by any means — spending rose by 1.8%, 2.5%, and 2% in the prior three quarters. But it’s enough to signal a still-expanding economy.
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