GBP/USD regroups from fresh bear cycle lows driven by the woes of Downing Street – by fx_ross GBPUSD Politics Currencies BOE
Health Minister Javid and Finance Minister Sunak resigned almost simultaneously out of dissatisfaction with UK PM, Boris Johnson's leadership. ''Replacements were immediately appointed in the persons of Barclay and Zahawi, but given the ongoing unrest, the question is how long they can enjoy their new office,'' analysts at Rabobank said.
Nomura said on Wednesday it now expects sterling will slide in the coming months to its lowest level against the US dollar since 1985."We remain short GBP/USD in spot and now target 1.15 by end-July, towards 1.10 by end-September. With the U. becoming a key energy export partner for Europe this is leading to significant terms of trade shock to the benefit of USD.
Casting minds back over the monetary policy path to date at The Old Lady, since December, the BoE has lifted the Bank Rate five times already. The market is pricing in 130bps of hikes over the next three meetings , implying at least two meetings with 50bps hikes. In other politics, an escalating row over Northern Ireland's status following Brexit could upend British trade ties with the European Union is also a weight on the currency. ''Uncertainties regarding red tape associated with
and fear of a trade war with the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol are likely to be clouding the investment outlook,'' analysts at Rabobank said.
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