GBP/USD bears are lurking around what could be the peak of the bullish cycle – by fx_ross GBPUSD Fed BOE CentralBanks SEO
otential peak of the current bullish cycle that met highs in the 1.2450s ahead of the Federal Reserve and interest rate decisions last week. GBP/USD has since tumbled to a 1.2120 structure low and on Monday it has travelled between a low of 1.2168 and a high of 1.2241 so far.
However, the yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes remains strongly;y inverted a minus 66 basis points. This indicates investor concerns about a recession in the next one-to-two years. Historically, recession fears and the contagion of such has been supportive of the safe haven US Dollar. In recent positioning data, it was seen that speculators’ net long USD index positions ticked a little higher as well.
The BoE minutes suggested that a recession is indeed expected and an even steeper fall in inflation is now seen next year following the government’s announced extension to the energy price cap. As for positioning data, net short GBP speculators’ positions edged lower and are now around half the size of their position in mid-October. The 4-hour charts show that the Pound Sterling is now on the backside of the bullish trendline support having potentially peaked out within a bullish correction of the prior bear cycle. GBP/USD is now resting on a ledge near 1.2120 and moving in a sideways channel.continues to coil vs.
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