China is working hard to attract foreign investors and firms. But the trade war looms large
preparing to join the World Trade Organisation in 2001, the phrase “the wolves are coming” kept cropping up in state media. The country was about to open up to foreign banks and the fear was that Wall Street’s finest would devour their Chinese rivals. But regulators managed to defang the wolves, never giving them a chance. Today, foreign firms account for less than 2% of assets in China’s banking sector.
Nevertheless, there are grounds for cautious optimism. For starters China is under closer scrutiny than in the past. Its rule changes are partly a response to the trade war with America. The government wants to win more support from foreign businesses, which it hopes can rein in America’s tariff-loving president, Donald Trump.
The long-stymied foreign banks are still minnows compared with China’s state-owned giants, but their assets in the country have increased by 40% in the past two years to almost $650bn, a third more than the total in Japan. The investment-banking industry is also starting to be reshaped.are all now either operating or setting up majority-controlled investment banks.
But China is also working harder to attract them. Until recently the only feasible way into its stock and bond markets was through special quotas assigned to large institutions. Now all investors need is a brokerage account in Hong Kong. “Among the emerging markets China does not stand out as being particularly difficult,” says Nicholas Borst of Seafarer Capital Partners, a fund manager in San Francisco.
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