.FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast for the U.S. House estimates that Republicans have an 84-in-100 chance of taking control of the chamber. That’s roughly the same chance Republicans had when the midterm forecast launched on June 30.
Includes both Republican-held seats and new seats created by redistricting that don’t have an incumbent party.
*Two incumbents are running in the Texas 34th: Republican Mayra Flores and Democrat Vicente Gonzalez. However, because Gonzalez currently represents the next-door 15th District, Flores is listed as the incumbent. Redistricting also helped Democrats a bit in the House. The North Carolina 14th, Oregon 6th and Texas 35th are new districts created by. And Democratic mapmakers reconfigured the Republican-held Illinois 13th to elect a Democrat. And then, there are a couple of Republican incumbents whose seats are now blue enough that they should watch their back: For instance, President Biden won California’s new 22nd and 27th by.
What’s that? Do you still insist on staying up late on Tuesday to follow the results, just in case something unexpected happens? In that case, I have two recommendations. The first is to pay particular attention to the 25 House districts below. According to our forecast, they are the 25 most likelyThe districts that could decide control of the next House
The 25 most likely “tipping-point” districts in the 2022 House election, according to the FiveThirtyEight final Deluxe forecast
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