New climate research shows where to expect hot and humid heat waves in the United States in the coming decades. In the summer of 2022, record-breaking heat waves in California and elsewhere have triggered a flurry of health alerts and warnings, strained power grids, and left millions of the most
First, the scientists calculated the top 1 percent of days on the ESI, a proxy for extreme heat stress, averaged for May-September 1980-2005 as a baseline. They then calculated the same for 2074-2099, assuming higher levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and changes to air temperatures, humidity, and sunlight reaching the surface due to changes in cloudiness.
Increases in extreme heat stress in coastal areas, especially in California, would be more moderate than in other areas because climate change is causing the land to warm up more quickly than oceans, and upwelling ocean water fuels sea breezes that help disperse stagnant heat and air. In contrast, higher elevation areas show amplified heat stress because they are expected to warm up more quickly than lower elevation areas due to a shift toward drier air, drier soil, and less cloud cover.
The Gulf Coast states will likely experience less pronounced changes on the hottest days. But since they have less variability between highs and lows to begin with compared to more northerly states, they will see the greatest relative increases in the frequency of extreme heat stress days . Southern Florida and Texas could see extreme heat stress days up to 50 times more often compared to the historical norms.
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