Fed's Brainard: Breakdown in inflation-unemployment relationship poses challenge

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Fed's Brainard: Breakdown in inflation-unemployment relationship poses challenge
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The relationship between slack in labor and other core resource markets and infl...

WASHINGTON - The relationship between slack in labor and other core resource markets and inflation has “broken down,” posing risks for the Federal Reserve if it fails to lift the pace of price increases to its announced target, a top Fed official said on Thursday.

“The trend in inflation ... appears to be somewhat below the Federal Reserve’s goal of 2%,” Brainard said. “This raises the risk that households and businesses could come to expect inflation to run persistently below the Federal Reserve’s target and could change their behavior in a way that reinforces that expectation,” a difficult spiral to break.

That “opportunistic reflation,” she said, could “communicate that a mild overshooting of inflation is consistent with our goal.”

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