A growing sense of uncertainty around the path of the U.S. economy, with volatile data and tightening financial markets posing risks to growth, pushed Federal Reserve policymakers into a newly cautious stance last month, a position reaffirmed by top U.S. central bank officials in a series of statements this week.
showed policymakers wrestling with risks they agreed were no longer just about inflation, with world energy and food markets perhaps threatening a new surge in prices, but slowing global growth, labor strikes and tightening financial markets possibly clamping down on the economy in unexpected, and job-killing ways.
The moves in the bond market began after the Fed's last rate increase in July, was noted by a staff analysis in the September meeting that showed a rise in inflation-adjusted "real" rates of interest, and was reflected in recent comments by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Investors since that meeting have steadily discounted the likelihood of any further hikes. After the release of the minutes on Wednesday, they gave a less than 10% chance of an increase in the policy rate at the Oct. 31 -Nov. 1 meeting and a roughly 26% chance at the Dec. 12-13 session, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
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