Defining the News
Three months from now, 370 million Europeans will be called to elect a new EU parliament under the shadow of a contest playing out across the Atlantic, as Donald Trump fights to reclaim the White House.
“For Europe, Trump 2 is both a huge exclamation mark, and a huge question mark,” said Sebastien Maillard, associate fellow at the London-based think-tank Chatham House. Any number of the bloc’s strategic priorities become “much, much harder to achieve” with him returning to power, she added.On the most critical of these — the conflict on the EU’s eastern rim — US Republicans are, at Trump’s behest, blocking vitally needed aid to Ukraine. They have maintained that position despite warnings that this could hand the advantage to Russia.
The balance of power in the 720-seat legislature determines how the EU’s top jobs — heading the commission, the parliament and the European Council, and leading foreign policy — are shared out. The ECFR predicts “anti-European populists” will likely come out on top in nine member states including France, Hungary, Italy and The Netherlands.ECFR polling shows Europeans across the bloc are most animated by the cost-of-living crisis: more than three in four expect their living standards to fall this year, according to a Eurobarometer poll from December.
Trump in many ways provided the playbook for Europe’s expanding far-right, said Rachel Rizzo, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center.
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